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HORACIO RODRÍGUEZ LARRETA

“If there is no confidence, if the numbers are not credible, there will not be any IMF agreement”

BY JORGE FONTEVECCHIA

Adecade before Mauricio Macri decided to enter politics in 1993, Horacio Rodríguez Larreta, had founded the Sophia group, the hotbed from which María Eugenia Vidal, Carolina Stanley and Esteban Bullrich emerged. Since then, the 56-year-old has headed the ANSES social security administration for Carlos Menem and the PAMI healthcare scheme for Fernando de la Rúa. He served as Macri’s Cabinet chief in the City government, before eventually succeeding him in office. Horacio Rodríguez Larreta Senior opposed his son placing his knowledge and organisational skills at the service of Macri. With a presidential election due next year, the current mayor of Buenos Aires City is expected to throw his hat into the ring.

IMF

Why weren’t you the first to support the government efforts to reach an agreement with the International Monetary Fund, knowing that any improvement gained for Argentina would be better than the debt contracted by the Macri administration, plus the prestige and fame you enjoy as a conciliator? And what conditions would that agreement require to have the support of the opposition?

I’ll be going to next Tuesday’s meeting [Editor’s note: Interview conducted before meeting was subsequently postponed], as has been coordinated. Governors

from Juntos por el Cambio will be participating along with our Congress caucus leaders. I’m positively inclined. An agreement is needed but one which makes Argentina grow and create jobs, not just any old agreement.

“I do not fall for simplifications or stereotypes. We need a broad majority. It’s not about being part of a splinter. We have to form a broad consensus within our team and then grow beyond that.”

As for conditions, firstly, the numbers on the table should be realistic. That’s very important, that didn’t happen with the [2022] Budget. Secondly, it should be part of a plan since this cannot be solved by any single measure. The IMF agreement is one part, and possibly not even the most important part, of a growth plan for Argentina. What is not to be seen today is how Argentina returns to growth, whether there will be investment and how jobs are to be created. The great objective is to create jobs. The IMF agreement is just one chapter.

You come from the private sector, so you will know that nobody requesting a loan from the bank will present a project with pessimistic numbers, only to be turned down. Wouldn’t it be logical that even if the fundamentals were unduly optimistic, it should be the IMF objecting and not the opposition?

For an agreement you must have optimism. That’s natural but you also need realism. If there is no confidence, if the numbers are not credible, there will not be any agreement either.

The future is unpredictable by definition, as you know. Nobody can tell what commodity prices will be in 10 years’ time.

Within 10 years is unpredictable, within eight, a bit less and within five, a bit less still. That does not mean that we should not have a long-term plan, including alternative scenarios after a certain period. Today we don’t have that.

Referring to inflation: they say that the IMF is analysing the possibility of accepting a plan against inflation with a price-wage agreement whereby the increases of both are progressively lowered.

Inflation is multicausal. It’s not just about a price-wage agreement, otherwise it would be very easy.

ELECTORAL STRATEGY

What type of alliance should Juntos por el Cambio seek for 2023? Something more geared to centre-right and rightist sectors or to progressives and socialists?

We should take the model from how we have kept growing. In these midterm elections we took steps towards that vocation for openness which we proclaim. We added Ricardo López Murphy in the Capital and independents like Facundo Manes or Carolina Losada elsewhere. In various provinces we had candidates more

“We have to open up Argentina so that we double the exports at the very least. We have the potential for that.”

Peronist in origin like Claudio Poggi in San Luis, Marcelo Orrego in San Juan and Germán Alfaro in Tucumán. We maintained our agreement with Juan Carlos Romero and Alfredo Olmedo in Salta while also adding Margarita Stolbizer. We have to keep growing and adding on. Argentina needs a broader majority.

The “moderates” of Juntos por el Cambio are said to want a broader alliance for 2023 to “isolate” Kirchnerism. What are Horacio Rodríguez Larreta’s limits? With [Sergio] Massa or without him? Is it better to have a centrist alliance or to integrate the libertarians of Javier Milei and José Luis Espert?

Massa is part of the government. In the case of the libertarians, in 2019 we had an agreement with Espert in the Capital. I have a good relationship with him. I respect him and we reached an agreement – we have already worked together. There are lesser-known leaders, mayoral candidates, in some provinces. We have to build a really broad governing coalition. That does not mean we have to reach government with a landslide. Sometimes that is not realistic. The important thing is to govern and transform Argentina, carrying out the changes needed and that requires a broader coalition. That can come from an electoral agreement but it can also grow afterwards.

Some perceive you shifting towards more hardline positions, pressured by [Mauricio] Macri’s wing of PRO and the success of the libertarians. Is your project also to head the “hawks” or will you at some time seek to recover the moderate and centre-right profile which you cultivated?

I stand by my convictions. I was very firm when questioning the government for staging a march to make the Supreme Court resign or when they freed convicts from prison or wanted to go ahead with their judicial reform or the expropriation of Vicentin. Ditto with price controls. I was also very firm over keeping City classrooms open. I defend the vocation for dialogue just as firmly. If we do not reach a broad consensus, we will not be moving ahead. I do not fall for simplifications or stereotypes. We need a broad majority. It’s not about being part of a splinter. We have to form a broad consensus within our team and then grow beyond that.

Are you thinking about a presidential ticket?

I’m not thinking of any candidacy, neither mine nor anybody’s. There’s still a long way to go. I have an enormous responsibility within the City taking care of people with Covid-19.

We’re testing 50,000 people daily and vaccinating 35,000, an enormous operation. That’s my focus.

LEADERSHIP

Why is that, after having imposed your candidates and winning, the feeling is that between the PASO primaries and the November elections, your leadership seems to have weakened without being able to consolidate yourself definitely as the opposition chief?

I’m not seeking absolute leadership. The absolute leadership of Juntos por el Cambio belongs to its executive board. That’s proven to be a very successful model. This is the first time since the return to democracy that the opposition has stayed united against a Peronist and now Kirchnerite government. That is also owed to its style of leadership. Furthermore, we won the election. Six months beforehand very few believed that to be possible. With that model of leadership we managed to keep the opposition united, win the election and halt judicial and legal reforms and many other initiatives harmful to the country.

Don’t you feel at times that there are more differences between you and the Juntos por el Cambio hawks than between you and the moderate wing of the ruling coalition?

I find it hard to detect that moderate wing within the ruling coalition. Their decisions lack moderation or search for consensus. Every time they speak, they question, accuse and blame the opposition.

Don’t you see any differences between Cristina Kirchner, traditional Peronism and Alberto Fernández?

For some time those who run the government – the president, the vice-president, La Cámpora – have shown no willingness to dialogue. I showed every goodwill towards dialogue and one day I found out through the media that they wanted to shut down the Buenos Aires City schools on me. That announcement was made by the president.

2023: GOVERNMENT AND ECONOMY

There are almost two years to go for (the elections in) 2023. You have gone criticising the lack of an economic plan on the part of the government. Do you have a plan?

That would be impossible because an economic plan depends on its starting-point. It’s not the same economic plan if inflation is 50 percent, 20 percent or 100 percent. It’s not the same if Argentina is growing or contracting. It would not be real without knowing what kind of country we’re going to have in 2023. I studied economics so I have plenty of affinity with these issues.

You could always simulate different scenarios with different starting-points.

We have to open up Argentina so that we double the exports at the very least. We have the potential for that. Argentina produces food to which value must be added, not just exporting raw materials.

As Pablo Gerchunoff put it, a popular exporting alliance.

Exactly. For example, thanks to the drive of Gerardo Morales, Argentina and Jujuy are producing lithium but we must export batteries and one day electric cars with the lithium of the Argentine north. We need an integral plan to tackle inflation. As you said, inflation is multicausal. You need to have a road map to narrow the deficit. It’s not realistic to spend more than we have. State spending needs to be made far more efficient. I believe in a smart and present state but there is so much waste.

What approach do you have for confronting inflation? Is Federico Sturzenegger’s inflation-targeting enough?

I don’t know if it is revolutionary but it is heterodox, including price-wage agreements and a clear path towards deficit reduction. When we print money, that sooner or later ends up carrying an inflationary impact. Expectations are also an issue. A credible government with a plan is required. Government credibility is also a factor in inflation.

COURAGE

Politicians are criticised for lacking the imagination to instrument new solutions to the problems we’ve always had. Does that poor creativity result from the fear of rejection in this “cancellation era.” It is said of you that you have no vocation to be disruptive, that you try to bring people together, not drive them apart. What is your relationship with courage and how would you rate it as a virtue?

You are posing a contradiction which I do not see. You have to bring people together and then be very disruptive from that unity. They said that we were crazy to split Avenida 9 de Julio in two to install the Metrobus, that transferring the seat of government to Parque Patricios was insane, that it was im

“Inflation is multicausal. It’s not just about a pricewage agreement, otherwise it would be very easy.”

Do you believe that Macri will not be running in 2023? “He said so himself so why wouldn’t I believe him?”

possible to put an end to flooding, that we would never finish the Paseo del Bajo underpass because it had been announced for the last 70 years and that the police could not be transferred but today the city is safer. We have done some daring stuff in the City of Buenos Aires. They considered me insane for wanting overhead trains. They wondered who would want to use a bicycle in Buenos Aires. Those were the far-reaching measures which occurred to me when administering the City of Buenos Aires and they are not small fry.

Did you see that audacity in Macri’s national government?

In some things, yes. For example, the level of energy displayed by Mauricio in reconnecting Argentina to the world. Who would have said that we would have all the world leaders here at the G20 [summit]?

The last time I interviewed you, more than four years ago, in November 2017, was the crest of the wave for Cambiemos, having won the [midterm] elections with the December disturbances still lying ahead. That interview was headlined: “Vidal and I are the same as Macri.” Do you still think the same way today?

We are part of the same Juntos por el Cambio leadership and we have worked together for 20 years.

In what way do you differ [from Macri]?

In temperament and personality. I’m a great believer in the need for the broadest consensus as the only way out.

So would you be a person more predisposed to consensus than Macri?

The context was different. His government started out very much in the minority in Congress. ]Consensus] is hard to construct.

Are you less orthodox in economícs?

I’m very much into the desarrollista school of development. But when you ask Mauricio who was the best president in the last century, he also says Arturo Frondizi [the 1958-62 president who founded desarrollismo]. In that sense we have a common vision. I believe hugely in building teams. I’ve approached people throughout the years and keep adding them. We have a super-committed team in the City which is carrying forward a governance which makes me proud.

Do you believe that Macri will not be running in 2023?

He said so himself so why wouldn’t I believe him? He can collaborate, form a part. He said so, those are not my words. I understand that he has also said so in public.

CITY

I’m now coming to your comfort zone, municipal affairs.

That’s the most important part of the interview. The City is my responsibility.

Regarding the question of the state land sold to make upmarket neighbourhoods, how many neighbourhoods did you urbanise in your mayoralty for low-income groups?

Never has so much social housing been built in the City of Buenos Aires as in these years. One project in conjunction with the national government, with Procrear, behind Huracán stadium, has almost 2,000 housing units. A bit further away, on Avenida Sáenz (also a Procrear project), the City built 700 housing units. In the Barrio 31 neighbourhood 1,050 families have already moved [into social housing].

Around 5,000 people or 10 percent of the population of Barrio 31.

Never has so much social housing been built. In Rodrigo Bueno, at the end of Puerto Madero, there is a completely new neighbourhood of social housing, as there is in Fraga, Chacarita and on the Avenida Triunvirato. An unprecedented construction of social housing while all the bank credits given via the Primera Casa plans with the aid of rental are equally unprecedented. Those are concrete cases with names and surnames. Many of them, much of Barrio 31 or Fraga, were built thanks to the sale of state land which had become disused wasteland. Thanks to those sales, a good chunk of Paseo del

Bajo, the most important infrastructural work in the City in decades, was financed, as was the construction of social housing in Villa 20 and Escalada y Cruz.

What would you say to those who point out that City education spending has gone down from a peak of 27 percent of the budget to the current 17 percent?

I would tell them they were getting their sums wrong. If you add to the City budget the subway subsidies and an entire police force, each spending item is lowered proportionally if the denominator increases – that’s mathematics. Anybody presenting it otherwise is acting in very bad faith. That is ignoring that the City has added many functions requiring greater spending.

So it’s a smaller percentage over a greater total.

Obviously. The Budget has now increased in absolute terms, even when measured against inflation. Thanks to that, we’ve built 54 schools in the City, the biggest schools we have. The biggest school in the City is right behind the Comodoro Py courthouse and Retiro station in Barrio 31. Then follow the Polo Educativo school in Mataderos, and the María Elena Walsh school, also in Barrio 31. We’ve completed the educational centres in Villa 20.

How did you feel when you lost in Barrio 31?

I work for the whole City and continue working with the same goodwill and energy. The whole project of transformation has continued all the same, over and above electoral results. I take pride in having succeeded in moving everybody under the highway, who lived in worse conditions than in Barrio 31. We relocated them all, as well as 70 to 80 percent of the people who live in the worst conditions in all the City, those living near the Riachuelo. Those people live much better today.

Argentina has a dual reality, one might say. Digital unicorns and world-class entrepreneurs but at the same time an alarming growth in school dropouts and worse results in tests. What educational social systems should Argentina have to take advantage of its opportunities in human resources?

I’m so proud of what we are doing in the City. The incorporation of technology into City schools is phenomenal. All the schools have broadband infrastructure, all the children have access to a computer, classes of robot technology and programming. All the children between first and fifth grades are learning English and some end up with 12 years of English, key to the access to the knowledge economy and technology. We must continue improving beyond any doubt – for example, with the project of the secondary school of the future. Those are things which take time and must be sustained in time.

ESPIONAGE

Ever since he started governing City Hall, Mauricio Macri has been denounced for illegal espionage. Today he faces cases of illegal espionage against you, Diego Santilli and María Eugenia Vidal, among others. Now the case of the video of Pata Medina has been added by intelligence officials. Do Macri’s ideas differ from yours when it comes to using the intelligence services?

I’ve never ever seen him to have any vocation for espionage. I don’t think he has anything to do with this. What we do have in Argentina is a problem with our intelligence services stretching back decades. It’s a recurrent theme, not of this government nor the previous, not of Macri nor anybody else.

But does Macri have more of these problems than most?

No, it’s a problem of the intelligence services. Like everywhere, there must be some capable people and others less desirable but the current model does not function and we must integrally reformulate the intelligence system so that it puts focus on international terrorism or drug-trafficking and other things requiring surveillance, not going spying on politicians, journalists and other people.

Why did you place Juan Sebastián De Stéfano, the former Legal Affairs director of AFI intelligence, on the board of directors of the Subte?

He’s never been questioned before. I would imagine you’re asking me that because of the video but he does not commit any crime in that video. There was no problem with his appointment, he had no criminal record or cases against him, then and now.

Did what you saw in the video make you uncomfortable?

Obviously it did and I’m not even talking about the use of the word “Gestapo.” I don’t know why it would occur to anybody to film a video like that of a meeting. It would seem that we are separating the important from the accessory. Here the important thing is María Eugenia Vidal giving battle against the mafias, against Juan ‘Pata’ Medina, who was a criminal. Justice has said as much and the court ruling had nothing to do with the investigation by those building contractors.

There is such a thing as good ends and bad means.

María Eugenia Vidal battled the mafias like never before in [Buenos Aires] Province.

So are the accusations of espionage in Macri’s government unfair then?

That’s a government issue. There has been a problem with the intelligence services for a good many years, it is not a monopoly of the Macri government. Those services must be deeply transformed.

And do you find any problems with the intelligence services in this government of Alberto Fernández already in its second half?

Yes, when they leak filmings dating back four years. It seems to me that we must change the services at the grassroots level, giving them a new focus.

BUENOS AIRES TIMES

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2022-01-22T08:00:00.0000000Z

2022-01-22T08:00:00.0000000Z

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