All eyes on Army as Brazilians head to polls

W ith Jair Bolsonaro trailing in the polls and regularly alleging Brazil’s voting system is plagued by fraud, all eyes are on the military and the role it could play in the country’s deeply divisive elections.

The president, an ex-army captain, has enthusiastically courted the military’s support and has put it forward as a referee in the elections, raising fears he could seek an armed intervention if he loses.

However, experts say that while Bolsonaro has the backing of some in the military, it is highly unlikely the institution would get involved in anything resembling a coup.

Bolsonaro, who openly admires Brazil’s 1964-1985 military dictatorship, has drawn the Army into politics on an unprecedented scale, naming more than 6,000 active-duty or retired service members to jobs in his administration, all the way up to Vice-president Hamilton Mourão, an Army reserve general.

“Bolsonaro believes it strengthens him to cultivate close ties with the armed forces and put on displays of military strength,” said Carlos Fico, a military history expert at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro.

Bolsonaro has never presented concrete evidence of electoral fraud. But he has sought to enlist the military in his crusade against Brazil’s electronic voting system. The armed forces regularly provide logistical support for elections, but the president has pushed to expand that to new levels, insisting they act as referees.

When the Superior Electoral Tribunal (TSE) bowed to his wishes by inviting the military to take part in a special Election Transparency Commission, Bolsonaro hailed the move. “The Armed Forces are responsible, they’re credible in the eyes of the public and they’re not going to play a merely decorative role in this election,” he said. “They’re going to do the right thing.”

However, experts say military support for Bolsonaro has its limits. “There’s not the slightest chance [the military] will play any role outside the one established in the constitution,” said reserve general Maynard Santa Rosa, former secretary for strategic affairs under Bolsonaro.

Even though Bolsonaro enjoys close ties with top military figures, Fico said those two “have no troops under their command.” He added that any election-related unrest from the security forces was more likely to come from the police, a group “very influenced by ‘Bolsonaro-ism.’”

Bolsonaro’s campaign team has pushed him to tone down his rhetoric on the election system, fearful of alienating moderate voters. But an aide close to the president, speaking on condition of anonymity, admitted the president was unlikely to listen. “It’s part of his persona. It’s political theatre,” the aide said. “Without that, he wouldn’t be Bolsonaro.”